Rise of Netbooks

Netbooks or low-spec notebooks came into this world due to Asus and their original EEE PC which debuted in late 2007. That PC used the free open-source OS, Linux, came with low specifications and had a low price. It was a hit and netbooks started to gain prominence among the average customer. They began to be viewed as secondary machines having low specs but compensating for that by being low cost. Soon they began to be offered by every manufacturer. It became essential for them, to offer netbooks if they had to increase their sales and weather the downturn successfully. In fact, this is one of the reasons why, Acer has jumped to the second position in the global PC market scaling Dell.

Result

If netbooks are becoming popular, then this means that their market share is also gradually growing and if their market share is growing then the components and the software inside them is also experiencing an increase in market share. This is one of the main reason why netbooks are becoming important for both manufacturers and consumers, and as a result components designed specially for them are being designed and sold. If you take the case of micro-processors, there was no set processor for early netbooks as they required extremely low power and at that time the processors available offered poor performance. Intel recognized this opportunity and created Atom, its low power, low cost processor which was just right for web surfing, making/viewing presentations and light work for which netbooks were originally made. Atom became a hit, and today, most of the netbooks in the market have an Atom inside them. Buoyed by its success, an Atom II is available.

Battle for the Netbook Operating System

Netbooks finally, presented an opportunity for Linux to increase its market share, but Microsoft was not ready to give up so soon and started offering manufacturers its own OS. It could not offer Vista which cannot work properly on entry level notebooks, forget netbooks. So they were left with the more than seven years old operating system XP which was a temporary solution until Seven was ready. With Windows 7 being finally released, Microsoft finally had a proper alternative but found a new competitor: Android and the soon-to-be released Chrome OS from its arch-rival Google.

But seriously, is Android any competition? Google itself acknowledges that Android is a operating system designed primarily for mobiles and not netbooks. Chrome OS, its operating system for PCs is being developed primarily for netbooks and will surely counter Windows 7 in the near future. This move itself proves that Google did not think that Android primarily being a mobile OS would have enough “power” to challenge Windows XP or Seven. Android being a new OS also has this major disadvantage that people view it as an immature OS for mobiles so you can imagine what they might think of Android on netbooks.

Besides, the short comings of Android, Windows also had this major advantage, of people being familiar with the Windows OS which in turn helped increase the sale of XP netbooks and start the demise of Linux netbooks. According to Microsoft, the return rate of Linux netbooks is quite high. But now with an up-to-date OS in the form of Windows Seven, Microsoft doesn’t have any need to loose sleep over Android or Moblin or the numerous other operating systems.

To conclude, Android at best can be offered as a dual-boot OS to users with Windows Seven or Windows XP but it simple cannot take the place of a mature OS such as Windows. I don’t want to say that Android is a poor OS but it is instead being developed for a specific niche in mobiles and not netbooks. Google Chrome OS may well emerge as a worthy contender to upset Windows Seven’s sales for netbooks.

Blind Search Engine test to see what you REALLY prefer

First, we have the Blind Search Engine site.

It basically puts results from Google, Yahoo and Bing side by side and lets you choose what you like best.  

On July 31st, 2009 the Delicate Genius put up results after 8 weeks for what search engine people voted for -

1. Google 41% 
2. Bing 31% 
3. Yahoo 28%

That’s really surprising since for me it was probably 70% Google and 30% Bing. For some reason never found a very good Yahoo result.

Canada goes Bing

Arnold Zafra at Search Engine Journal reports that Bing beat Yahoo and Google in Success Rate i.e. users were more often able to find the results they wanted when they used Bing -

So based on Hitwise’s August data on search market share in Canada, Bing enjoys a 78% success rate, followed by Yahoo’s Canadian search portal and its US search portal. Both Google’s main search portal and its Canadian search portal lags behind Bing and Yahoo.

While this might mean that Bing is providing more relevant SERPs we must also consider the fact the Canadian consumers may actually be using the Bing cashback program

Very valid point on CashBack – On deal sites like Red Flag Deals there are lots of links pointing to Bing CashBack and those people are more likely to know exactly what they are looking for.

Bing and Ping

Taking feature titles into the dimension of the absurd aside, Bing’s new feature is very promising.

It basically lets you share your search results with your friends. The Bing Blog describes it well -

Bing & Ping lets you share search query answers through various places, like Facebook, Twitter, or even email in as few as two clicks. Share a neighborhood plumber recommendation with a friend though email, tweet local movie times, or post a flight status with your Facebook pals while you’re trying to bum a ride from the airport.

If you’re interested in previewing this feature, be sure to become a fan of our Facebook page.

Adding a social dimension to search is critical as some of the most trusted sources for information and purchase advice are our close friends and family and including them in the search process and/or letting them easily see what we’ve found is great.

Focusing on Facebook and Twitter is great as those are the two social sites Google will be most reluctant to add to its own search results.

This actually also goes very well with the whole concept of Bing being a decision engine and not a search engine.

Technorati Tags: google vs bing, microsoft search

However, the Microsoft Yahoo search deal greatly magnifies the amount of damage the release of Windows 7 could do.

Importance of Microsoft and Yahoo combining forces

1. Bing goes from 8% market share to 28% market share.
2. Yahoo sales team can go out and get a bigger share of the search advertising market. 

Competing with Google when Bing is at 8% and Google is at 65% was an exceedingly difficult proposition for Microsoft. Bing at 28% vs Google at 65% gives Microsoft at least a partial chance. Even if Bing doesn’t get to more than 30-35% there’s still a HUGE amount of value in being a strong #2 in search.

Kevin Newcomb at Search Engine Watch thinks the deal is a win for Advertisers -

Microsoft’s adCenter platform is widely considered superior to Yahoo’s Panama, and with enough volume could offer a viable alternative to Google AdWords. Not a Google-killer, mind you, but a credible place to spend search advertising budget in addition to Google.

As do most of the advertisers Search Engine Watch talked to.

Terms of the Microsoft Yahoo Search Deal

Courtesy ReadWriteWeb -

1. 10 year agreement.  Microsoft acquires exclusive license to Yahoo’s core search technologies.
2. Yahoo will get 88% of search revenue generated on Yahoo’s sites during the first 5 years.  
3. For next 5 years, terms will be discussed at end of first 5 year term.
4. Display advertising businesses will stay separate. 
5. Bing will be the exclusive algorithmic search.  
6. Limits the data shared between the companies to the minimum necessary to operate and improve the combined search platform.

The Wild Card – Windows 7 and the power of the default

Let’s assume that all the new users using IE8 on windows and getting Bing as the default gets Bing 5% of the search market.

1. When it’s Bing by itself (without yahoo) that’s a jump from 8% to 13%. Great, however, not that significant. Since Yahoo would still be #2 at 20%.
2. With a combined Microsoft-Yahoo Search, Bing would go from 28% to 33%. Suddenly it has more than half of Google’s share.

There are a lot of different moves Microsoft is making, and at some point they will begin to add up -

1. Stealing the Verizon search deal from Google. 
2. This tie-up with Yahoo.
3. Windows 7 release.

This is one of the more visible moves – However, even the little ones add up.  

Windows 7 also makes Microsoft stronger

Mr. Ballmer has said that Microsoft is ready to devote 5 to 10% of revenue to Search for the next 5 years.

1. In the last quarter, Microsoft’s revenue was $13.1 billion.
2. For the year ending June 30th, 2009, it was $58.4 billion.
3. Across 5 years that translates to a gigantic $292 billion.
4. 5 to 10% of that is $14.5 billion to $29 billion.

As a comparison, Google’s annual revenues are in the region of $21 billion a year and their expenses are $9 billion a year.

Microsoft is willing to spend 33% to 60% of what Google will spend over the next 5 years.  

Signs are that Windows 7 is going to be a big hit. That would mean much more revenue for Microsoft, strengthening of Microsoft’s hold over the PC market, and more money in the coffers to devote to Bing and Search.

Microsoft has added the ace of Yahoo’s market share to its Windows 7 ace. By the end of the year we’ll know exactly how significant Windows 7 is.

Technorati Tags: search, windows 7

The projecting two images at one time and being able to project an image on to another screen is crazy. At this point its just a demo and just a prototype. However we’ve seen Microsoft Surface technology move to Windows in Windows 7, and this technology might show up in Windows 8 or Windows 9.

Also makes me hope that we start seeing more advanced technology in computers by end 2009 so that we can see the full power of multi-touch in Windows 7 unleashed.

Technorati Tags: microsoft surface demo, windows 8 screen

1. It shows that Microsoft is not only soliciting feedback, but also incorporating it into Windows 7.
2. It definitely shows that MS understands that certain segments of the press are just waiting for an opportunity to start hammering Windows 7.

Here are some of my thoughts -

1. At the Engineering 7 Blog, there is a very nice write-up of the UAC change and the reasoning behind it.
   1. With this feedback and a lot more we are going to deliver two changes to the Release Candidate that we’ll all see. First, the UAC control panel will run in a high integrity process, which requires elevation. That was already in the works before this discussion and doing this prevents all the mechanics around SendKeys and the like from working. Second, changing the level of the UAC will also prompt for confirmation.
2. It was amazing to see the huge reaction to a single bug – to the extent that people started writing complete ‘Windows 7 loses to Vista in security’ posts and attacking Windows 7 and Microsoft.
3. Interesting that initially Microsoft had a very ‘we don’t really care about it, it’s ‘by design’ ‘ attitude to the issue. And glad that they realized how much of an issue it was becoming.
4. The press, or to be more precise, certain sections of the press really are looking to find a weakness in Windows 7 and go after it. This is even more clear when you see the hue and cry about the 6 versions of Windows 7. It’s unfortunate – however, it’s nowhere near as big of an issue as people make it out to be.
5. It taught me a lesson in the amount of influence a solitary blogger can wield (the blogger at I Started Something). His bringing up the issue helped it spread so quickly. Got to love the internet.

Strategy for Windows 7 Going Forward

At this point Microsoft just should just take it for granted that they are going to be attacked often and for ridiculous reasons – basically some journalists are trying to find an angle that’ll hold with the public. once they find this angle, they’ll just hammer on it until they can create a perception that Windows 7 is a flawed OS. There are a few areas that seem risky at the moment -

1. Pricing of the various editions. This is a huge area of concern, with people already floating rumors that the Windows 7 Starter Edition will be priced at $200.
2. Lack of Multi Touch Applications and also lack of hardware that supports multi-touch properly. Microsoft has to do a great job of setting expectations. Not to mention meet expectations by releasing good multi-touch applications.
3. Security – security has been, for as long as I can remember, one of the big Windows concerns that Linux advocates bring up. MS has to tread warily and fix security issues as soon as they come up.

The response from Microsoft to the UAC elevation vulnerability, and in particular their post about it, has been excellent. It really alleviates people’s concerns and the comments clearly show this. Here’s to hoping Microsoft keeps up the good work.

CES 2009 KeyNote: Here’s a real-life account of the keynote as it happens -

6:29 pm - A blank stage, with two strangely dressed guys beat-boxing.

6:30 pm – Garry Shapiro (head CES, I guess) is introduced. He looks like he’s forcing himself to be excited about CES. Does mention that CES is the place to find out where the industry is headed. Have to agree with that. Mr. Shapiro seems really happy to be introducing Steve Ballmer – wonder why? Talking about how Mr. Ballmer got 800 in his SATs – is that really impressive?

A mention of Microsoft’s 7 different businesses – just 7?

6:34 pm – They’re showing some random video – Microsoft software + shiny, happy people. Gears of War 2 clips, someone using a windows powered phone, lots of other strangely out of place stuff.

6:36 pm – Steve Ballmer is out on stage. Hands on Hips – “So this is CES”.

A lot of confidence. Some good jokes – Jerry Yang complaining about Steve ignoring his facebook requests; BillG telling Steve to make sure he doesn’t land up at MacWorld by mistake.

Some stuff about Microsoft’s impact etc. etc.

6:38 pm – A good point that ‘There really is no turning back from a connected life’. Also talking about how innovation and innovation in technology will continue to drive us forward, even through this recession.

Opportunity in 3 areas  -

1. Convergence of 3 screens – PC, phone, and TV.  5 billion people have never owned a PC. Talks about Netbooks + 1 laptop per child. Single seamless ecosystem – anytime, anywhere communication. TV as the least evolved.
2. How you will be able to interact with your PC and other devices in a more natural way. PC able to see you and hear you. Speech, handwriting, and gesture – how we interact with phones, TVs, and computers.
3. Connected Experiences – the end of silos and a common experience across devices and situations. The Internet cloud is connecting all your devices seamlessly. The last mile.

6:45 pm – First time I’ve heard Steve Ballmer talk and he’s good. very good.

Talks about Windows remaining the centre of people’s technological solar system. Windows – extending to the phone, and the cloud.

Windows – the language that over a billion people speak across the world.

Windows – nothing without the great hardware that it works on.

6:46 pm -> some of the cool products. the good stuff.

1. Lots of products being released. 
2. Minew S310?
3. Acer, Toshiba laptops.
4. Sony Vaio TT.  
5. U6V bamboo Asus.
6. lenovo ideapad. thinkpad.
7. Qosmio X305 Toshiba.
8. HP TouchSmart PC.
9. hp firebird.
10. xperia from Sony Ericsson.
11. HTC TouchHD + TouchPro.
12. Samsung Omnia.

Products that feature Windows Live, Windows Mobile + Windows Vista.

6:50 pm- Talks about the economy and people looking for value + that PC presents the best option. I am a PC. obvious jab to Apple.

PC enabled -

1. More applications + let them work together. 
2. More choice in hardware. 
3. Windows offered more as an ecosystem.

A big opportunity to make a difference in people’s lives.

6:51 pm – Transforming Windows from an OS to a connected experience across the TV, the phone, and the computer.

A life without Walls.

Windows 7 – woohoo.

simplicity, reliability, speed. Windows 7 – everyday tasks faster. boot more quickly, fewer alerts, longer battery life. new media center experience, ability to easily access your media. cool new user interface things like touch.

Announce releasing the beta of windows 7 for TechNet and MSDN customers. Friday – In 2 days – beta available worldwide.

Windows Live – 3 Big Announcements.

1. Windows Live Essentials – Release of Windows Live Mail + Photo Editor etc. for XP, Vista and 7.  
2. Partnership with Facebook – Windows Live + Facebook.  
3. Partnership with Dell – to preinstall Windows Live Essentials + Windows Search on all their home and small business PCs.

Also, announcing partnership with Verizon to have Windows Live Search on all Verizon phones. 

Demonstration of Windows 7 – Charlotte Jones. After that, Robbie Bach on Television and Connected Experiences.

Here’s the big Windows 7 demo -

Its pretty straightforward – nothing new that I can find. Talking about jumplists and two windows at the same time, and other Windows 7 stuff we already know about.

Makes me appreciate Ballmer’s speaking skills more.

Walking through HomeGroup. A real life touch-screen example. Surface Globe – that looks really close. I’ve seen the video – however, seeing it in real life rocks.

It really is a completely different way of interacting with a computer.

Samsung Omnia example – 5 megapixel camera and an impressive example of taking a panoramic shot.

I really don’t like this strategy of using your 1 established product (i.e. windows os) to try to get 2 other obvisouly laking products (i.e. live and mobile) traction. Just not worth it. The integration with Facebook is a good one. An example of IE8 accelerators. Reminds me of ubiquity in firefox.

Windows Live What’s New – everyone wants to be FriendFeed. What a waste of energy.

A reservation at Nobu. Aren’t we in a recession.

The people are clapping for some random feature called QuickAdd.

I’m getting bored – you have an OS with multi-touch and you’re talking about having a little video avatar. God.

Microsoft have arguably single most important piece of software coming out in Windows 7 and I had a woman show me her ‘kissy lips’ avatar for her husband. The pain.

I’m signing out. It’s 45 minutes and the inanity of the last 5 minutes has gotten to me. And now they have some band called Tripod playing. Nice Voices – never heard of them before.

Robbie Bach – Connected Entertainment.

Connecting with friends and family. Creating social experiences that brings people together.

Ford Sync with TellMe included. Zune had a great year – are you kidding me?

Doubled the number of people on Zune social to well over 2 million – wow, that is news.

TV – MediaCenter. 10 million unique users a month. Average session time is about 90 minutes. Media Center in Windows 7 – huge. 2.9 million people who are subscribers to services provided by MediaRoom – Microsoft’s ipTV solution.

MediaRoom is something I don’t know about.

Xbox had a spectacular year – I have to agree. Wii won – however Xbox won the hard core gamer market. Very high attach rate. Sub $200 – this is where the majority of consoles get sold in any generation of consoles.

17 million members on Xbox Live. 70% growth in 2008. This is really, really impressive. People are letting the Wii distract them – however, Xbox and Xbox live are becoming a Microsoft monster.

Halo Wars + Halo 3 ODST. Halo as the defining connected gaming experience. Feb 28th release of Halo Wars. Downloadable demo starting Feb 5th, 2009. Halo 3 ODST – ships in the fall. Also, MS has sold 25 million copies across the Halo fanchise.

Xbox Live – Dramatic increase in downloads – up 60% since MS launched NXE. In first 5 years, 10 billion hours of gameplay and social interaction – also known as wasting time. And here I was thinking myspace and facebook had that market covered.

Xbox Live PrimeTime – scheduled programming. 1 Vs the 100. Launches in the Spring. An interesting program. Spring 2009. The crowd at CES seems to like it.

NetFlix through Xbox 360 – I did know about that, and it’s definitely a good step. Real Time High Definition streaming movies and tv. Pretty cool fast forwarding.

NetFlix mobile app – available later this week on Windows Mobile app stor – didn’t even know there was one.

Xbox Live – 60 million song downloads for Lips, Rock Band, etc.

Weekends are becoming interactive music experiences. Rock Band, and more.

They have a 12 year old girl up on stage demoing how to modify your game. And create wisps. It seems really, really complicated. This must be the birghtest 12 year old in the known universe.

Robbie Bach is playing against a 12 year old in a game she created. I really don’t know what to say. He seems mighty pleased.

So Microsoft aims to connect people’s entertainment experiences.

Ballmer’s back – and he does have a powerful voice.

Three trends -

1. Increase in Speed replaced by increases in Processors – Writing applications that take advantage of multi-processors.
2. Screens will be everywhere.
3. PCs, phones, and the internet will become a single platform for creating experiences.

A lot of exciting things ahead. Janet Galore from Microsoft Research with some prototypes -

1. A Digital Textbook – a kindle competitor.  Pulling in information from the cloud.
2. An eInk type display – except it had color, and animation, and looked really good.   

Good Night from Mr. Ballmer.

Technorati Tags: ballmer, ces