Microsoft has confirmed that there won’t be any new Betas of Windows 7. This means that there are only 3 stages left  -

1. Windows 7 Release Candidate (RC).
2. Windows 7 Release to Manufacturing (RTM).
3. Windows 7 General Release.

And my estimates for these three dates are -

1. Windows 7 RC – I think this will most probably be out in April 2009. 
2. Windows 7 RTM – I think this will be out in May or June 2009, which would allow for a 2009 release before Christmas season. There might be exceptional circumstances that push it to beyond this and would push windows 7 into a Feb 2010 or Mar 2010 general availability date. 
3. Windows 7 General Release – Microsoft would obviously like to release this before the big Christmas Shopping Season. However, there is a chance this gets pushed out to 2010. 

There are some important clues arising, like this partner blog with Windows 7 related date estimates. This puts a tentative date of October 3rd for general release. Also,

Ray, a Microsoft Certified Trainer received tips from several sources that point to a 2009 release. Recently, a Microsoft MVP who “wasn’t supposed to say anyything” told him he had heard from another Microsoft employee that the RTM was scheduled for June/July. Another Microsoft employee also told him Windows 7 is scheduled to launch in September.

A RTM of June/July would actually translate into a General Availability of end October/sometime in November at the earliest. Since rumors of an April//April 10th Release Candidate are flying around, it seems that we’ll deifnitely be seeing Windows 7 by Oct/Nov 2009.

Factors Impacting Windows 7 Release Date

There are four main factors to keep in mind -

1. Quality Vs Expediency – Microsoft must release a very high quality Windows 7 – At the same time, the sooner they can release Win7 the higher their chance to capture the 2009 Christmas Season and to ward off the next Apple OS.
2. OEM time cycles i.e. how soon they need a RTM version available so that they can hit 2009 Holiday Season. More notes on this below.
3. Critical Bugs and Security Vulnerabilities.  There is always the chance that one or more critical bugs come up that push out the dates.
4. Setting Expectations and Having Flexibility – This is one reason Microsoft is not being more forthright with their official dates. Setting hard timelines ties you down and creates strong expectations in customers.

I do know that for OEMs, an RTM build has to be available 3 to 6 months before so that they can get it out. Dell is the fastest since they build their computers individualized for every consumer and only need to do their own testing beforehand.

OEMs that build a lot of computers with pre-set configurations need more time since they have a more long-drawn testing process. And other factors like how long computers sit on shelves at Best Buy also factor in (I am not quite sure exactly how though).

My Final Take

We are going to see Windows 7 released by Nov 2009 (including on netbooks). The release candidate is going to be Apr 2009, and RTM is going to be end May 2009 June 2009.

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